Categories: General Market Commentary / Precious Metals
Topics: General Market Commentary / General Precious Metals

Sprott's Thoughts Manager Insights from the Sprott Gold Team

Sprott's Thoughts
Manager Insights from the Sprott Gold Team

With the surprise Trump election victory, the markets have undergone a massive rotation.  Literally overnight virtually every major position trade has been turned on its head.  Because gold is relatively minor in the grand scheme of markets, it has become caught in the wake of this massive rotation.  The bond market has undergone a monumental sell off.  To get a sense of the scale of these moves the sell-off in bonds as measured by the TLT was almost a 5 sigma move on Wednesday November 9th using daily price data. Financial services, healthcare and almost anything cyclical (and especially infrastructure related) were aggressively bid.  Anything approximating a bond proxy (utilities, staples, telcos, REITs, and gold) were sold off equally aggressively.  The issue for gold is that the sell-off in bonds and the rise in nominal yields are outstripping the rise in inflation expectations causing real rates to rise.  We think the bond sell-off was predominantly flow driven.  The rise in the USD is also likely driven by the expectations of better relative growth in the US due to tax cuts and expected infrastructure spending plans.  The market is pricing in the known outlines of Trump’s policies as highly inflationary.

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