Categories: General Market Commentary / Precious Metals
Topics: General Market Commentary / General Precious Metals

Macron, Le Pen Reach French Runoff as Establishment Crashes Out

April 23, 2017

Centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen won the first round of the French presidential election, triggering a runoff on May 7 between two radically different visions of the country’s future. 

Macron, a first-time candidate and political independent, was on course to take 23.4 percent in Sunday’s election, with National Front leader Le Pen on 22.6 percent, according to projections from the Interior Ministry based on almost four-fifths of votes counted. A snap poll released late Sunday suggested Macron would defeat Le Pen by more than 20 percentage points in the second round.

The result means that for the first time in modern French political history, both establishment parties were eliminated in the first round. Republican Francois Fillon conceded within 40 minutes of polls closing after placing third with a projected 19.9 percent, while Socialist Benoit Hamon trailed in fifth place with just 6.1 percent. Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon was on 18.9 percent and refused to concede.

The euro jumped on the result, soaring as much as 2 percent in early trading to touch the highest level since November, before paring some of those gains.

 

The outcome is a vindication for pollsters who successfully predicted the top two slots. It still represents an earthquake that will reshape French and potentially European politics for years to come. The rejection of the two main parties reflects the anger coursing through a society traumatized by Islamic terrorism and buffeted by years of sub-par economic growth and high unemployment. A victory for Le Pen would bring that discontent to a head.

“This is more than a French election,” Dominique Reynie, a professor of political science at the Sciences Po institute in Paris, said before the result. “Given its ramifications, it’s more a European or even a global election.”

The odds are that France won’t ultimately produce a result as dramatic as Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. in November or Britain’s decision to leave the European Union. What’s more, whoever wins will face a challenge to implement their agenda. France will hold parliamentary elections in June and neither Macron’s En Marche! movement nor the National Front are expected to come close to a majority in the legislature still dominated by the traditional parties.

To continue reading please click link https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-23/le-pen-macron-in-french-presidency-runoff-as-main-parties-lose