China To Develop Seven Mega-Wind Power Complexes Totaling 126 Gigawatts

July 6, 2009

It has recently been reported by Industrial Info Resources (IIR), a leading provider of global market intelligence that China, through its Wind Energy Specialty Commission of China Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA), is planning to develop seven mega-wind power complexes totalling some 126 Gigawatts. That’s GWs not MWs (megawatts) and as a colleague of mine noted “This will soak up a few kgs of REEs!”

A couple of months ago, “the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) officially approved the first batch of 3.8 GW wind farm projects, including 18 wind-farms each of 200-megawatts (MW) and two wind farms each of 100 MW in Gansu. This marks the first 10GW wind complex planned in China has entered into the implementation stage”.

And how are the Chinese government and industry meeting the challenge? “Consortiums of new energy companies under the top five power producers in China together with their equipment suppliers are the major players in the current wind power industry, according to SHI. For instance in the bidding process for the first batch of 3.8 GW wind-farm projects in Gansu, the top five power producers acquired the biggest portion. In addition, traditional state-owned power giants have been engaged in the upstream development of wind power projects, aimed to establish a complete industry chain from equipment manufacturing to project construction and operation.”

“As of the end of 2008, China's installed capacity of wind power reached 12 GW. It's expected that the total installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 30 GW in 2010.”

Twelve to 30 to 126 GW in under 11years... when I saw the numbers, I was 'blown away' (excuse the expression).

To put this level of energy production into perspective, the average big nuclear reactor these days is 1000 MW or 1 GW. Using some local (Ontario Canada) references, each reactor at Pickering Generating Station is 500 MW... there are 8 units for a total of 4GW. Each reactor at Darlington, of which there are four, is 1GW. So what does 126 GW of individual 5 MW wind turbines look like?

If a significant number of these Chinese wind turbines will be direct-drive (no gearbox) permanent magnet units, my colleague will be bang on... they will need tonnes of rare earths. I was once told that the rule of thumb was 1 tonne of permanent magnet for each MW of power for the larger wind units (respecting that individual applications require different configurations - high speed/low speed; big unit/small unit). Now, I don't recall if the rule of thumb relates to the final magnet weight... if not, more REE material will be required and left on the production floor (if not recycled).

In any event, thinking aloud... with 100 GW or 100,000 MW of new turbines to be installed in China alone, it would imply a possible demand of 100,000 tonnes of Neodymium-Iron-Boron permanent magnets or tonnes of Neodymium alone. I understand that not all wind turbines will be of direct-drive design (whew!), there will be an ever competing demand or neodymium from the automotive and electronics sectors.

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